Frank Nagle, Research Scientist, MIT, Chief Economist, The Linux Foundation
In his keynote at our Open edX 2026 conference, economist Frank Nagle took us on a fascinating journey through the dark matter of the digital world: open source software.
Just as astronomers observe the effects of invisible dark matter to understand the universe: dark matter is something that we know exists in the universe but we can’t really measure it that well directly, but we can see its effects on other things around it. So Frank and team measured the effects of open source on the things that it supports that it enables and have spent more than a decade measuring the profound impact of the code that powers our modern world. From the early days of the Apache web server to the massive, collaborative ecosystems of today, he explored how to quantify the value that often hides in plain sight.
The $9 Trillion Question
Frank’s research reveals a staggering reality: if the concept of open source did not exist, the global cost of software development would increase by three and a half times. His latest analysis puts the value of widely used open source packages at nearly $9 trillion.
But the keynote wasn’t just about big numbers. It was a call to action for organizations to rethink their participation.
Shifting from “Free Rider” to Contributor
One of the most compelling insights shared was the Return on Investment (ROI) of contribution. While many organizations treat software as a “free” resource, Frank presented compelling data showing that those who actively contribute back to the ecosystem:
- Gain 2x the productivity compared to those who simply use the software.
- Improve recruitment and retention of top-tier engineering talent, who value the opportunity to contribute to public projects.
- Reduce the massive, hidden costs of maintaining internal, private forks of code that constantly drift from the original release.
As Frank noted regarding the Open edX platform specifically, replacing its functionality from scratch would cost approximately $42 million. Contributing to it ensures this critical infrastructure remains healthy, secure, and sustainable for everyone.
Collaborate on the Core, Compete on the Edges
Frank introduced a powerful framework to help organizations decide where to contribute and where to differentiate. By focusing collaboration on “the core”—the foundational tech layers like identity and standards that are common across the industry—organizations can lower costs and improve system reliability. Meanwhile, they can reserve their competitive energy for “the edges,” such as pedagogy, student support, and unique user experiences.
“If we can invest in the open and gain more return on investment while lowering our costs, it’s a win all over the place,” Frank noted.
What’s Next?
Frank is currently finalizing a customizable ROI calculator—seeded with real-world data—to help organizations quantify the specific benefits of their own contributions. We look forward to sharing more on that soon.
In the meantime, you can dive deeper into the health of the projects you rely on by exploring LFX Insights.
Watch the full keynote here: [Link to Video]
